中国房地产市场区域发展不平衡的实证研究

Empirical Study of China Real Estate Market Development

一国房地产市场的发展与其经济发展密不可分,中国作为经济大国,区域经济周期的不平衡性决定了区域房地产市场发展周期的不平衡。利用上海和黑龙江两地房地产市场的资料,采用扩散指数和多元线性回归法对两地房地产市场发展周期不平衡的现象进行定量分析,说明我国房地产市场的发展存在着比较显著的区域周期发展不一致的状况,从而得出我国目前实行的以经济发达地区的房地产市场发展情况为主要依据的统一房地产调控政策的不可取性,提出应以各地市场发展的真实情况为基础,制定符合各地区发展阶段的区域性房地产调控政策。

The development of the real estate market in a country is highly related to its economy. China being a economic power, unbalanced cycles of regional economies lead to unbalanced ones of real estate markets, this paper, according to the material from the real estate markets both in Heilongjiang and Shanghai, employs diffusion index and multiple regression to carry on quantitative analysis on the phenomenon of unbalanced cycles of the real estate markets in the areas, indicating that there is significant variety on the development of different areas. It is coneluded that the current real estate policy based on the well - developed areas is infeasible, and therefore the proper policy, which fulfills the requirements of every particular region, is supposed to be based on the local economy actualities.