广东经济增长与就业关系的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Economic Growth and Employment in Guangdong

实证分析表明,1978-2006年广东GDP增长率、就业增长率和就业弹性变化趋势基本上一致。三者之中就业增长率波动的幅度较小,GDP增长率和就业弹性波动的幅度较大。广东经济增长与就业之间存在长期稳定关系,广东经济每增长1%,就业增长0.22%。Granger因果关系分析表明广东经济增长和就业之间存在双向因果关系,经济增长带来了就业的增长,就业的增加促进了经济增长。广东三次产业吸纳就业的能力不同。第三产业吸纳就业能力最强,其次为第二产业,第一产业劳动力随着经济增长逐步转移到第二产业和第三产业。

An empirical analysis shows that,1978-2006 GDP growth rate in Guangdong Province,employment growth and employment elasticity basically keep the same trend.The rate of employment growth fluctuated smaller,the others did larger.The relation between Guangdong's economic growth and employment is in long-term stability,Guangdong's GDP grew by 1%,employment did by 0.22%.Granger causality analysis shows that there exists a two-way causal relationship between Guangdong's economic growth and employment.The tertiary industry's employment absorption was the strongest,followed by the secondary industry,the primary industry labor force shifted to the second and tertiary industries with economic growth gradually.