基于预期理论的住宅市场价格调控模型及其仿真分析

Effect of regulation policies on house price: modelling and simulation based on expectation theories

针对我国目前住宅市场宏观调控前期效果不太理想的问题,建立住宅市场价格调控预期模型;给出基于不同预期理论的住宅价格数学表达式;分析预期因素对住宅市场宏观调控政策效果的影响规律;采用MATLAB软件,模拟北京市住宅市场价格调控过程,验证所建立价格模型的正确性,同时对不同供给调整系数条件下的试验结果进行对比分析。结果表明:市场主体的政策预期可导致调控政策的短期失效,住宅供给调整系数越小短期价格波动越剧烈;而长期中预期作用对调控政策效果无影响。研究结果为我国住宅市场宏观调控决策制定及实施提供了依据。

establishes Considering that the effect of regulation policies on housing market is not yet satisfactory, this paper a housing price regulation model based on expectation theories. The analytical formulations of housing price are outlined on the basis of various expectation theories, and the influence of expectation on the effectiveness of regulation policies on housing market is analyzed. The dynamic process of housing price regulation in Beijing is simulated with MATLAB to verify the housing price regulation model based on expectation theories. The test results with different adjustment Coefficients of housing supply are compared and analyzed. The result shows that market players＇ policy expectations may cause the regulation policies futile in a short term, and the short-term fluctuation of housing price grows sharply with the decrease of housing supply adjustment coefficient value; however, the policy expectations have no impacts on the effectiveness of regulation policies in the long term. Such result provides a foundation for the development and implementation of macro-control policies on the housing market in China.