技术进步在我国经济增长中长期效应研究

An Analysis of Long-run Effects of Shocks in Technological Progress on China's Economy Growth

利用向量自回归(VAR)技术,从动态的角度,系统地考察了我国技术进步变动对我国经济增长的冲击以及这些冲击在GDP长期走向中的解释能力。实证分析结果表明,我国经济增长对技术进步、资本投入和劳动投入的任何一个冲击都有正的反应,但在这些变量中,资本投入和劳动力对我国经济的长期走势有较强的解释能力,而技术进步的解释能力要弱一些。

This paper characterizes the long- run effects of shocks in technological progress, capital investment, labor input on China＇s economic growth, using a VAR approach. Identification is achieved by using decomposition method. The results show that technological progress, capital investment, labor input shocks all have a positive effect on economic growth, but the technological progress has only got the least share.