区域可持续发展的社会动态人口承载能力模型研究

Research on the Model of Population Carrying Capacity for the Regional Development

作为第一人口大国,人口承载能力一直是研究热点。分析了现有研究成果的局限性,在此基础上,综合考虑经济、社会、资源、环境以及人口系统本身的演变,给出了人口承载能力的综合评价框架。考虑人的多层次需求的基础上,参照小康科学指标体系和人文发展报告,给出综合评价框架中各个信息的代表性指标,建立了开放区域动态的人口承载能力模型以及使用模型进行人口预测的框架。最后以上海为例,用主成分分析法给出了简化模型的系数。

As a country with the largest population, the population carrying capacity has been a research hotspot, In this paper the limitation of the exist ing research results was analyzed and on that basis, being the economy, society, resources and environment as well as the evolution of the population system itself being,a comprehensive evaluation framework of population canying capacity was given, On the basis of the multi-level needs of people, considering a well-off scientific index system and human development reports, the various representative indicators of the information in the comprehensive evaluation framework were also given, and an open regional dynamic population carrying capacity model and the use of population projections framework model wene established. Finally Shanghai being taken as an example, with the principal component analysis the simplified model coefficients was produced.