北京市劳动力供给量变动及影响因素的实证研究

The Quantitative Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Labor Supply in Beijing

劳动力的供给主要受到总人口规模变动、劳动适龄人口比重以及劳动参与率三个因素的决定。本文在系统分析了北京市劳动力供给以及三个主要决定因素历史变动的基础上,采用因子分解方法,定量计算了20世纪90年代以来上述三个因素在北京市劳动力供给量变动上影响的重要程度。结果发现,在整个90年代,北京市总人口规模增长对劳动力供给变动的影响很大,但从90年代中期以来,劳动参与率变化的影响逐渐增大,成了近年来北京市劳动力供给增长的最重要因素。劳动适龄人口比重变化的影响始终存在,但相对影响程度不太明显。今后劳动力供给的变化,不仅取决于这三个因素各自的变动趋势与大小,更取决于它们作用的相互耦合程度。

The labor supply is mainly determined by three factors： population scale, age-structure of population, and labor participation ratio. On the base of systematic analysis of the historical change of those three factors the author calculates the impact extent of population scale, age-structure and labor participation ratio on labor supply by using the method of decomposing factors, and finds that during 1990＇ s although the population scale is the most important influencing factor on the labor supply in Beijing, since 2000 the labor participation ratio has become the most important factor.