基于MATLAB系统辨识工具箱的风信号预测

WIND SIGNAL FORECASTING BASED ON SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION TOOLBOX OF MATLAB

利用MATLAB系统辨识工具箱的ARMA模型对主要影响风机输出的风速和风向时间序列分别进行数据预处理、相关性分析以及ARMA模型参数估计和模型定阶,最后得出风信号预测结果。将MATLAB系统辨识工具箱用于建立ARMA模型实现对风信号的预测是一种新的尝试,由简单的几行程序就可以达到很好的预测效果。说明将MATLAB系统辨识工具箱的ARMA模型用于风信号的预测是合适的,能反映出风电场的未来风速和风向分布特性。

Wind signal （including wind speed and direction） forecasting can relieve or avoid the disadvantageous impact on wind power plants and enhance the competitive ability of wind power plants against other power plants in electricity markets. Firstly, based on the ARMA model of System Identification Toolbox of MATLAB, the method and steps of data pretreatment, correlation analyzing, parameter estimation of ARMA and deciding model order for the time series of wind speed and direction were carried out, then the result for wind signal forecasting was derived. Using ARMA model based on System Identification Toolbox of MATLAB to forecast wind signal was a novel try, and very good result was obtained from a few lines program. The result show that the ARMA model based on System Identification Toolbox of MATLAB is every valid to forecast wind signal and can reflect the future characteristics of the signal .