长三角地区农田化肥投入快速增长的经济学诱因分析

Economic Incentives of the Fast Growth of Chemical Fertilizer Input in the Yangtze River Delta Economic Zone

农田化肥大量投入是引起农业面源污染的重要原因。根据长三角地区1980—2005年种植业生产以及农产品市场的统计数据,从投入要素机会成本变化和农产品价格变化角度,探讨长三角地区农业生产中化肥投入快速增长的经济学诱因。研究结果表明,长三角地区土地密集型作物上化肥投入快速增长是由于土地机会成本增长远远高于化肥价格增长而产生的化肥对土地的替代;相对劳动密集型作物上化肥投入快速增长是由于劳动机会成本高速增长引发的化肥对劳动的替代,并且相对劳动密集型农产品市场价格波动对化肥投入量的影响也较为显著。

The use of great quantities of fertilizer in agricultural production is one of the causes of generation of non-point source pollution（NPS） in the Yangtze River delta economic zone. Based on the statistics of farming production and agricultural produce market during 1980 -2005, economic incentives of the fast growth rate were explored from the angle of changing opportunity cost of input factors, and changing prices of agricultural produce. Results show that land opportunity cost grew much faster than the ＇prices of fertilizers, thus leading to substitution of land with fertilizer; that rapid growth of labor opportunity cost led to substitution of labor with fertilizer; and that prices of the labor intensive agricultural produce fluctuated sharply, which are assumed to be the major contributors to the rapid growth of fertilizer input.