湖北省粮食产量与耕地非农化关系研究

Study on Relationship between Grain Production and Cultivated Land Conversion in Hubei Province

利用计量经济分析方法,分析了湖北省粮食产量与耕地非农化之间的关系。结果表明,耕地非农化是湖北省粮食产量变化的影响因素,但并不是主要的影响因素,两者存在着低度负相关关系。耕地非农化会从耕地数量和质量上影响粮食播种面积和粮食单产,从而影响粮食产量总产的变化,因此需要从法律、制度、技术、行政和意识方面保护耕地,确保全省粮食安全。

The purpose of this paper was to analyze the relationship between grain production and cultivated land conversion in Hubei Province. Methods of econometric analysis were employed. The results indicated that the conversion of cultivated land was an impact factor of the changes of grain production, but it was not main. There existed low degree negative relationship between them.The conversion of cultivated land would influence grain sowing area and list production,fill to the total grain production though the amount and quality of cultivated land.Therefore,we needed to take some measures from the aspects of the law, system, technique, administration and consciousness to protect cultivated land and make the provincial food safety.