基于风险的病险水库除险决策技术

Decision-making for reservoir danger removal based on risk analysis

利用风险分析及风险管理技术,研究群坝风险排序技术、单座水库大坝风险要素排序技术,以河南省安阳市的10座小型水库为例进行风险排序,以江苏省某水库东副坝为例进行风险要素排序,探讨在资金有限条件下确保最大可能地降低病险水库风险的技术。研究成果可应用于目前正在开展的病险水库除险加固决策。

Based on the risk analysis and risk management technology, methods for risk ranking of dam groups and risk factors ranking of a single reservoir dam were studied. Risk ranking of 10 small-scale reservoirs in Anyang City of Henan Province and risk factors ranking for the east auxiliary dam of a reservoir in Jiangsu Province were performed to minimize risk with a limited budget. The results of this research can be applied to decision-making for danger removal and reinforcement of dangerous reservoirs.