一种可业务化的雷电潜势预报方案

An Operational Scheme for Thunder/Lightning Potential Forecasting

利用2000-2005年的闪电定位资料、常规气象观测资料、实时业务应用的数值预报产品以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,基于雷电发生的天气学分型和完全预报方法原理,以可业务实时实现为原则,对广州地区雷电的短期潜势预报进行了研究,引入了“马赛克化”、不确定度概念以及多元回归、线性/非线性拟合方程等数学统计方法,得到一种较有效的雷电短期潜势预报方案,该预报方案在实时业务预报中试用,预报结果对雷电潜势预报具有参考价值。

Based on the synoptic pattern classification and the principles of the Perfect Prognosis method, the thunder/lightning potential forecasts in Guangzhou are studied by using the lightning positioning data, conventional meteorological observational data, operating numerical model output and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during the period of 2000 to 2005. By the method of mosaicization of synoptic situation, the concept of uncertainty, and the statistical and mathematical methods such as regression analysis, the synoptic patterns are classified when thunder/lightning occurred; then the functions between meteorological elements and lightning times for each day are developed; accordingly the probability of thuncler/lighting occurence can be obtained. This operational scheme for thunder/lightning potential forecast is running in real time in Guangzhou Central Meteorological Office, which can provide some valuable references for thunder/lightning forecasing.