雷达定量估测不同类型降水

Quantitative Estimate of Different Sorts of Precipitation with Radar

利用2002、2003年自记雨量资料及相应的雷达体扫资料,用最优化法统计得出福建中北部不同区域不同降水类型的Z-I关系,并将统计结果用于2005年、2006年的降水估测。同时利用实时雨量资料采用卡尔曼最优(卡尔曼滤波+最优插值)、变分等估测方法进行实时雨量校正,用福建北部武夷山九曲溪流域雨量计检验校正后的雨量值,并对上述几种方法的点及面的估测结果进行比较。结果表明:卡尔曼最优法及100 km距离范围内的最优化法对站点及面平均降雨量估测误差最小,Z=300I1.4估测的误差最大。

Based on Doppler radar scan data and automatic weather station data from 2002 and 2003 and the statistical analysis method, the Z-I relation formulas for different regions and different sorts of rainfall in the northern and central Fujian Province are obtained. Precipitation processes in 2005 and 2006 are calibrated by means of the relation formulas. The variational method and optimum Kalman Filter method （in combination with Kalman Filter and optimum interpolation） are used to calibrate the estimated rainfall with real-time data, and the calibrated rainfall is tested with the raingauge data from the Jiuquxi Valley of Wuyishan Mountain. Results for the methods are compared and analyzed. The analysis shows that the smallest error results are from the optimum Kalman Filter method and optimization method from 0 to 100 km, and the greatest error is resulted from the relation of Z：300I^1.4