基于逆向重力模型的枢纽机场旅客吞吐量估计方法

Estimating methods of passenger throughput for hub airport based on reverse gravity model

为了利用航空OD客流数据精确估计机场旅客吞吐量,描述了全连通线性航线网络和枢纽辐射航线网络,根据枢纽机场之间的OD客流矩阵,建立了逆向重力模型标准代数算法和基于哈密顿图原理的简化代数算法,分析了在不同距离修正指数下,算法的拟合与估计精度。分析结果表明:简化代数算法与模型标准代数算法最优吞吐量回归直线的可决系数都为0.84,斜率分别为0.91和0.87,比较接近。可见算法的拟合效果优良,估计精度高,且简化代数算法需要的数据少,尤其适合大规模OD矩阵分析。

To accurately estimate airport passenger throughput based on airline passenger flow OD data, both full-connected linear network and hub-spoke network were discussed, according to passenger flow OD matrix between hub airports, a standard algebraic algorithm of reverse gravity model was developed, and a simplified algebraic algorithm was put forward with the Hamiltonian graphs, and the fitting precisions of two algorithms were studied under defferent ranging exponents. Analysis result indicates that two algorithms＇ deterministic coefficients of the best throughput regression lines are 0.84, their slope values are 0.91 and 0.87 respectively. So two algorithms have good fitting effects and high estimating precisions, and simplified algebraic algorithm needs only a very small data, which can be used for large-scale OD matrix analysis. 3 tabs, 5 figs, 12 refs.