摘要
Simon认为经典决策理论的假定过分地严格,在实际中往往难以满足。运用上、下偏矩的方法来估计未来财富不低于渴求水平的概率,并基于多属性模糊决策方法构建两个心理帐户的行为投资组合优化模型。模型中融入了不同质投资者的真实情感、信念及认知状态,实证分析的结果表明该模型具有很强的实用性和包容性。
Simon believes that traditional decision -making theory is excessively strict and cannot satisfy the factual cases. In this paper, the probability of the event that future wealth is no less than the aspiration level is estimated with the method of upper and lower partial moment, and a behavioral portfolio optimization model of two mental accounts is presented based on multiple attribute fuzzy decision -making. The real emotion, belief and cognitive states of heteroge neous investors are incorporated in the model and the result of empirical analysis indicates proves very practical.
出处
《商业研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第5期11-15,共5页
Commercial Research
基金
国家自然科学基金
项目编号:70271005
70471066
上海市重点学科资助建设项目
项目编号:T0502
上海市基础研究重点项目
项目编号:03JC14054
2005年上海高校选拔培养优秀青年教师科研专项基金
关键词
行为金融学
行为投资组合
多属性模糊决策
模糊流动性
优化模型
behavioral finance
behavioral portfolio
multiple attribute fuzzy decision making
optimization model
