江苏省耕地面积变化及其驱动力动态研究

Change of Cultivated land Area and its Driving Forces in Jiangsu Province

以东部沿海典型发达省份江苏省为例,集成应用灰色关联分析、因子分析和多元逐步回归分析方法,探讨不同经济发展阶段耕地面积变化特征及其驱动力。结果表明:①1985年来江苏省耕地面积持续减少,年均递减率为0.45%,且快速工业化阶段耕地面积的减少速度明显加快,年均递减率高达0.60%,而工业化初期仅为0.30%;②耕地面积减少导致2005年粮食较1985年减产266.79万t,粮食损失率为8.60%;③不同经济发展阶段,江苏省耕地面积变化的主导驱动因素有所不同,在工业化初期是以工业化和城镇化为主导,在快速工业化阶段,则以全社会固定资产投资、化肥施用强度、非农产业发展和道路交通建设为主导。总体来讲,经济增长和土地利用比较效益差异是研究时段内江苏省耕地面积变化的主导驱动力。图2,表4,参15。

The cultivated land change in area is closely to social-economy development. Taking the eastern coastal developed area of Jiangsu Province as an example, this paper makes a thorough study on its cultivated land change and dynamic driving forces in different economic development phases based on gray analysis, factor analysis and multiple stepwise regression analysis. The results show that： （1）Jiangsu suffered a continuous cultivated land decrease since 1985s with annual decrease rate was 0.45%. In the process of fast industrialization, the annual decrease rate of cultivated land was 0.60%, however, it was 0.30% at the initial stages of industrialization;（2）The decrease of cultivated land area resulted in a reduction of grain output about 266.79 × 10^4t, and the reduction ratio was 8.60%;（3）The driving factors of cultivated land area change were different in different economic development phases. Industrialization and urbanization were the dominant driving factors of cultivated land change at the initial stages of industrialization, however, fixed assets, intensive fertilization, the development of non-agriculture industries and transport construction played a more important role during the process of fast industrialization. In general, the growth in GDP per capita and the gap of land use efficiency are the dominant driving factors of cultivated land change since 1985s.