陕西省耕地压力时空变化规律分析及预测

Forecast and Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Cultivated Land Pressure

根据耕地压力指数理论和模型，分析了陕西省耕地压力的时空变化规律及成因，并对未来变化进行了预测。结果表明：虽然粮食单产和复种指数不断提高，但是由于耕地面积大量持续减少、人口的不断增多，1978～2005年陕西省耕地压力指数较高，耕地压力较大，并且呈上升趋势；2005年区间耕地压力差异不显著，但区间1996～2005年耕地压力变化差异明显，陕北高原区〉秦巴山区〉关中平原区。通过预测，2015年陕西省耕地压力指数达到2．237，耕地压力非常大。针对陕西省耕地压力指数逐渐增大现状，为减缓耕地压力提出相应的建议。图6，参7。

In this paper, the Spatio-temporal characteristics of cultivated land pressure and driving factors are analyzed based on the theory and model of cultivated land pressure index, and the tend of future index of cultivated land pressure is forecasted. The conclusions are as follows：（1） The pressure index in cultivated land in Shaanxi province is gradually increased, cultivated land pressure is mounting, because the cultivated land is greatly reduced and the population increases gradually; （2） The cultivated land area change in Shaanxi Province has experienced 3 stages since recent 28 years, i. e, rapid reduction, sharp reduction and slow reduction. Although the rate of cultivated land reduced is slower in the past few years, along with the rapid economic development and the need of economic construction, the cultivated land area still decreases greatly. （3） The difference of cultivated land pressure among cities is inconspicuous, but the pressure index of cultivated land in all cities are more than 1 and the cultivated land pressure of every city is high;（4） The order of growth for cultivated land pressure index in different regions is the plateau of northern Shaanxi province 〉 the Qinba mountainous region 〉 the Guanzhong Plain. （5） The forecast shows that the index of cultivated land pressure will reach to 2.237 in 2015 and the cultivated land pressure in Shaanxi is increasing year by year.According to the present situation, some suggestions are proposed in order to reduce the cultivated land pressure Shaanxi.