粮食产量影响因素的灰色关联分析及其贡献率比较

Grey Incidence Analysis of the Influence Factors of Grain Yield and their Comparison of Contribution Rates

运用灰色关联分析的方法,通过对省域(河南省)、市域(安阳市)、县域(滑县)三级粮食产量影响因素(播种面积、有效灌溉面积、农村用电、农用化肥、农用柴油、农药)的灰色关联分析及其贡献率比较,结果表明:有效灌溉面积对市域、省域两级粮食产量的影响均居第一位,农用化肥施用量对县域、市域两级粮食产量的影响均居第二位,农药与其它5个因素相比,对省、市、县三级粮食产量的影响相同,都是最小。农用柴油、农村用电、农用化肥、农药对县、市两级粮食产量的贡献率均居第一、第二、第三、第四位,化肥和农药对省、市、县三级粮食产量的贡献率都据第三和第四位。在此基础上,为不同区域尺度的粮食生产提供了决策依据。表5,参11。

By means of grey incidence analysis, the paper made a comparison between the grey incidence analysis of the influence factors （mainly referring to planting area, effective irrigation area, the electricity use of countryside, agricultural chemical fertilizer, agricultural diesel oil and pesticide） of grain yield and their contribution rates from the three layers of provincial level, municipal level and county level. The result indicates that different scope of research has different result.The influence of effective irrigation area on the grain yield in municipal level and provincial level both occupies the first place, and the influence of the application quantity of agricultural chemical fertilizer on grain yield of county level and municipal level is both in the second psition. Comparing with the other five factors, the influence of pesticide on the grain yield of the three levels is all the lowest. The contribution rate of agricultural diesel oil, electricity use of countryside, agricultural chemical fertilizer and pesticide to the grain yield of county level and municipal level respectively occupies first place, second place, third place and the fourth place, and the contribution rate of chemical fertilizer and pesticide to the grain yield of the three levels of province,municipality and county all occupies the third and the fourth place.On the basis of the above analysis,the paper is to offer policy-making support for grain production at different regional scope.