绿洲规模与绿洲经济发展关系定量研究

Quantitatively Study on the Relationship Between the Economic Development and Oasis Scale

绿洲经济发展水平与发展潜力很大程度上取决诈豪洲规模内存在的各种资源规模的大小。对于环境封闭和生态脆弱的干旱区绿洲而言，一方面，由于资源数量和质量的限制，经济的快速增长受到约束；另一方面，经济发展导致的人口规模、生产规模及其消耗资源能力的增大导致绿洲负荷过重，稳定性受到威胁，从而影响社会经济的可持续发展。所以同时实现经济效应和人口、资源、生态环境保护在绿洲适宜规模内协调发展是至关重要的问题。在绿洲生态经济系统特殊性的基础上，以且末绿洲为例，根据1985～2004年的连续统计数据，运用多种定量分析方法，研究在绿洲适宜规模下存在的资源规模与绿洲经济发展关系，为绿洲规模与绿洲经济稳定发展提供了依据。图2，表4，参16。

The level and potential of oasis economic development are up to the scales of all kinds of resources in the oasis to some extent. For the closed environment and ecologically fragile system of the arid oasis, the development of economic is constrainted due to the limit of quality and quantity of resources, therefore, the increases of population, productivity scales and the expenditure of resource result in the excessive burden of oasis. The stability of oasis is threatened, and the sustainable development of economic and society is affected. It is critical to form the coordinate development of economic effect and people, resource, ecology and environment protection. Based on the particularity of oasis ecology and economic system and the continuous statistical data from 1985 to 200d,this paper takes the Qerqen oasis as an example, uses all kinds of methods of quantitative analysis to study the relationship between economic development and appropriate resource scale of oasis, and provide the measures for the stable development of oasis scale and economic stability