基于系统动力学的业务性能预测和优化模型

Business Performance Prediction and Optimization Model Based on System Dynamics

业务性能的预测和优化是业务性能管理的重要环节,为此利用数据仓库技术和系统动力学理论搭建了业务性能的预测和优化模型并提出实施框架。在该模型下重点研究了三个关键问题:①关键绩效指标体系的构建。②关键绩效指标体系到系统动力学模型的映射机制。③系统动力学求解业务性能指标预测和优化问题的实现算法。将该实施框架运用于开发出的CIMFlow工作流管理系统中,框架的有效性得到验证。

Business performance prediction and optimization are important segments in business performance management （BPM）. A business performance prediction and optimization model and an implementation scheme using data warehouse technique and system dynamics （SD） are presented.Three key points of this model are studied：①The construction of key performance indicators （KPIs）.②The mapping method from KPIs to SD model.③Algorithms to solve the KPI prediction and optimization in SD model The scheme is deployed in a real workflow system CIMFlow to testify the effectiveness.