我国宏观经济对股票市场走势影响的实证研究--基于非政策性传导机制的视角

An Empirical Study on the Influence of Macro-economy on the Stock Market in China——An Perspective on the Non-policy Transmission Mechanism

理论上,宏观经济通过传导机制对股票市场产生影响,从而产生联动效应。现实中,我国股票市场自上世纪90年代成立以来,宏观经济对股市产生的影响与理论描述是否吻合?这个问题是本文研究的重点。本文基于非政策性传导机制的研究视角,采用实证研究的方法就我国宏观经济对股票市场走势(1992—2007)的影响进行深入分析,并揭示出二者产生异动的原因。

Theoretically, macro-economy has impact on the stock market through the transmission mechanism, thereby creating linkage effects. Is the macro- economical impact on the stock market actually consistent with the description of the theory since Chinese stock market was estabhshed in the 1990s？ This is the focus of this paper. Based on the non - policy transmission mechanism, we make the empirical study on macro- economic influence on the stock market （ 1992 - 2007） in china from a new angle, and then reveal the causes.