局部调整模型延拓及其在糖料供给行为中应用

Extension of the Partial Adjustment Model and Its Analysis on the Sugar Supply Behavior

糖料作物是中国三大经济作物之一。分析影响我国糖料生产者决策行为的内在因素,对于稳定发展我国的糖业具有非常重要的现实意义。从定性和定量2个方面回顾了供给反应的文献,将局部调整模型作了较合理的延拓,认为糖料的播种面积主要受前期的播种面积、前期的生产成本、前期的糖料价格和前期的粮食价格影响。然后对糖料生产者的供给行为作了实证分析,最后提出了相关政策建议。

Sugar crop is one of three major economic crops in China. Analysis on the internal decision making behavior of, sugar producers is important and practical for the stable development of sugar industry. We recalls the literature in the supply response from the qualitative and quantitative aspects partial adjustment model was make reasonable extension. Believing that the sugar sown area is mainly affected by the early sown area,pre-production costs,the early sugar prices and the early impact of food prices, we make empirical analysis on the supply of sugar producers and conclude relevant policy recommendations.