地面沉降泊松旋回预测方法——以上海地面沉降长期预测为例

A Prediction Method of Poisson Circle for Land Subsidence

在上海地面沉降长期预测研究的实际经验基础上,对泊松旋回模型进行了一些改进,建立了地面沉降泊松旋回预测的数学模型,提出了应用于预测时的技术处理方法。对预测的上海部分标点1995—2050年地面沉降量10～37cm进行了一定评估,认为在现有研究水平上是可信的。引入衰减系数于泊松旋回模型之中是本方法的特色之一。

Based on the experience of long range prediction of land subsidence in Shanghai,a Poisson circle mathematical model to predict land subsidence has been developed in this paper. Much improvement in this model has been made to original model proposed by Wen Wenpo(1984). Some technical treatment methods during prediction has been suggested. This model can be used to predict long range land subsidence caused from pumping ground-water. It predicts Shanghai land subsidence magnitude of 10 to 37cm by the year 2050 from 1995 according to extensometer data. This prediction result can be considered to be believable by appraisement. To lead a decreasing index a into the model is one of the distinguishing features of this method.