基于BDD故障树分析的海关风险识别理论及其应用

A Theory And Its Application Of Binary Decision Diagrams Based Fault Tree Analysis In Customs Risk Identification

本文用故障树方法研究海关执法中的风险识别问题,运用风险管理理论,引入二元决策图(BDD)分析方法描述故障树作用过程,建立基于BDD的故障树分析模型,定性推理出海关外部违法风险发生的业务逻辑,定量计算出风险发生概率,为降低传统故障树分析法在众多故障源情况下的时间空间复杂度提供有效方法,并通过实例阐述模型应用过程。

The paper presents a structured approach for risk identification and describes a Binary Decision Diagrams （BDD） based fault tree tool for identifying risks in Customs law enforcement to qualitatively irregular risks and quantitatively calculate the possibility that a risk will happen. Therefore, it offers an efficient and effective method to reduce time and space complexity resulting in multiple fault sources using traditional fault tree analysis. The model application is illustrated through various real-life case studies.