中国能源消费与经济增长关系研究

A Research of the Relationship between China's Energy Consumption and Economic Growth

面对日益增长的能源需求和日趋严重的能源短缺压力，经济学家和政策制订者都面临着如何科学地制订能源发展战略等问题。时这些问题的解答必须建立在时能源与经济增长关系的科学认识基础之上。考虑到经济变量的非平稳性，运用协整理论，对中国1984年～2004年的能源消费和经济增长之间的关系进行了格兰杰因果检验，并建立了误差修正模型来考察它们之间的长期关系和动态关系。结果表明，我国能源消费和经济增长之间存在协整关系，但不存在因果关系。

Facing the rising demand for energy and the shortage of energy supply, economists and policy maker must try to answer the question like how to map out of energy development strategy. The answer should be based on the correct understanding of the relationship between China＇s energy and economic growth. Based on the theory of nonstationarity of the economic variables, this paper uses co-integration theory to study the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the China's Mainland during the period from 1984 to 2004, and set up an error correction model to investigate the long-run and dynamic relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. The empirical results suggest that there is co-integration between energy consumption and economic growth, but no causality between them.