中国出口长期增长的实证研究

Empirical research into long-term growth of China's export

采用时间序列分析方法,利用1986—2005年的相关数据对中国的出口贸易进行实证研究发现,中国出口增长与世界进口需求的增长互动性强,国内经济增长对出口增长具有显著推动作用,与国际接轨对推动我国出口贸易的发展作用显著,但引进外资对促进出口贸易的作用不够明显,引进外资的效应没有得到很好的发挥。

The Time Series Analysis Method is used to make empirical study of China＇ s export trade based on the related data of export trade of China from 1986 to 2005, and the results show that there is positive interrelationship between the growth of China＇ s export and the demand of the world＇ s import and that there is obvious promoting effect of domestic economic growth on the growth of export and that there is obvious role of implementing international iaws and regulations on promoting China＇ s export trade development and that there is unclear effect of foreign investment on promoting export and that the effect of foreign investment does not give full play.