影响中国就业弹性的因素分析

On the Factors Affecting Employment Elasticity in China

文章由修改后的柯布道格拉斯生产函数推导出劳动力需求方程,找到影响就业弹性的因素:资本存量、实际工资、技术因素和市场化程度;并将这些因素与就业量进行了实证分析。结果表明:劳动需求量、资本存量、职工工资、技术因素和市场化程度之间具有协整关系;资本投入的增加对就业量的带动作用不显著;技术因素虽然短期对就业有挤出效应,但其增长效应大于挤出效应;非国有经济和第三产业具有较高吸收就业的能力,非国有经济和第三产业的发展是缓解我国当前就业形势的重要途径。

Based on the equation of labor demanding deduced by mended Cobb-Douglas production function,the factors of affecting employment elasticity：capital stocks,real wage,technological progress and marketization are found.By demonstrating the relationship between employment and these factors,the outcome of the research indicates that there is a co-integration among employment,capital stocks,real wage,marketization and technological progress;and the increase of capital stocks can not improve the scale of employment largely;and technological progress has the crowding out effect to the employment in short term,but less than its increase effects;the tertiary industry and non-state owned economy can improve employment remarkably.It is very important to develop tertiary industry and non-state owned economy for reducing the pressure of employment now in China.