中国北方气候变化对小麦产量的影响--基于EPIC模型的模拟研究

Effect of climate change on wheat yield in northern China: a research based on EPIC model

中国的粮食产量在过去的几十年中一直保持着稳定的增长,农业技术在其中起到了重要的作用。但随着全球气候变暖及其导致的气候极端事件的增加,气候变化对作物生长和产量造成了不同的影响。选用美国农业部提出的EPIC(Environmental Policy Integrated Climate)农作物生长模型评价了气候变化对小麦产量的影响。基于EPIC模型,模拟了中国北方80个典型站点的春小麦和冬小麦1961-2005年期间的生长过程,分析了不同作物类型、不同灌溉类型和不同农业区域小麦产量的波动,以及生长季辐射、水分胁迫因子和温度胁迫因子对产量波动的影响。结果表明:在不考虑农业技术因素的条件下,辐射的波动是导致小麦产量波动的主要原因;温度胁迫的降低在一定程度上促进了小麦的增产。

The grain yield in China has maintained a stable increase in past some decades and in which agricultural technologies played an important role. As global climate warming and the increase of the extreme climate event, climate change may impose positive or negative effect on the crop growth and yield. In this paper, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate （EPIC） crop growth model is proposed for assessing the effect of climate change on wheat yield. The EPIC model was developed by USDA to analyze the relationship between soil erosion and agricultural productivity at station yield. This study, under the non-change condition of the agricultural management, modelled the wheat growth （ 1961 -2005 ） of both irrigated and rain-fed spring and winter wheat at 80 typical sites located in four agro-regions of North China by EPIC model, and analyzed the influence of the changes of radiation, water stress, and temperature stress on wheat yields in north China. The result shows that the variety of the solar radiation was a main factor of the fluctuation of wheat yield, the temperature stress likely causes the increase of productivity of the irrigated winter wheat in the North China Plain. The water stress influences the rain-fed wheat in the arid and semi-arid area.