水工建筑物渗流管涌的Monte-Carlo模拟

Monte Carlo simulation in seepage piping of hydraulic structure

渗流管涌曾导致一些水利工程失事，给国民经济带来巨大损失。因此，渗流管渗的研究不仅有理论意义，而且有很大的实用价值。首先分析渗流管涌发生和发展的机理。给出了管涌的数学模型：铅直流土的台萨基模型、斜坡流土的谢斯塔可夫模型以及渗流冲刷的曹敦侣模型。在此基础上，用ＭｏｎｔｅＣａｒｌｏ法模拟渗流管涌的发生和发展。孔隙介质的渗流特性考虑服从给定概率分布的随机变量。随机模拟给出管涌发展的形象，同时还可求得在一定条件下，渗流管涌导致管涌破坏的机率。模拟结果表明：渗流管涌发生后，是否会发展到渗流破坏，不仅与相对渗径长度有关，而且还取决于绝对渗径长度。随机模拟的结果能很好地与实验室试验结果相印证。

Seepage piping caused some accidents of hydraulic project and brought about great losses to the national economy, so that the study on seepage piping is of significance not only in theory, but also in practice. In this paper, firstly the occurrence and development mechanism of seepage piping is analysed, then the mathematical model of seepage piping is put forward. On this base, the occurrence and development process of seepage piping is simulated by Monte Carlo method. The seepage characteristics of porous medium are taken as a random variable with an assumed probability distribution. The seepage piping process is demonstrated by stochastic simulation, and, the probability of destruction by seepage piping under certain conditions can be obtained. The simulation results demonstrate that whether the seepage destruction would or would not take place after seepage piping is developed is dependent not only on the relative seepage path length, but also on absolute seepage path length. The results of random simulation and laboratory test can be testified satisfactorily with each other.