基于MM5模式的蔬菜大棚气温预测技术研究

Study on Forecast Technique on the Temperature in Vegetable Greenhouse Based on MM5 Mode

[目的]介绍利用MM5数值预报产品预测蔬菜大棚气温的技术方法。[方法]于2002年11月～2003年4月在武汉农业气象站,2006年2～4月在东西湖慈惠农场进行试验,观测项目为24 h大棚内温湿度,双层膜内温湿度,0、5、10、15、20 cm地温等。[结果]在试验观测的基础上,对武汉市冬季蔬菜大棚逐小时气温进行详细分析,找出影响蔬菜大棚气温的主要因子,结合MM5数值预报产品的释用技术方法,研究出蔬菜大棚逐小时气温预测技术,并结合常规预报对大棚内气温模拟模型进行修正。将通过模拟模型推算出蔬菜大棚24 h内的最高、最低气温与实际大棚中出现的最高、最低气温进行比较,蔬菜大棚中最高、最低气温预测的准确率达到68%。[结论]该气温模拟模型有待于进一步检验和完善。

[Objective] The study aimed to introduce the technique of forecasting the temperature in vegetable greenhouse by using MM5 numerical value forecast product. [Method] The experiments were conducted on Wuhan Station of Agricultural Meteorology in Nov. 2002-Apr. 2003 and on Hucihui Farm in Feb.-Apr. 2006 and the observation items were the temperature and humidity in greenhouse within 24 h, the temperature and humidity in bilayer film and ground temperature at 0,5,10,15 and 20 cm. [Result] Based on test observation, the temperature hour by hour in winter vegetable greenhouse in Wuhan was analyzed in detail to find out main factors of affecting the temperature in vegetable greenhouse. Combined with the explaining and using technique of MM5 numerical value forecast product, the technique of forecasting the temperature in vegetable greenhouse was studied out and the temperature simulation model in greenhouse was corrected according conventional forecast. Comparing the highest and lowest temperature, calculated by the simulation model, in vegetable greenhouse within 24 h with that in practice greenhouse, the accuracy of forecasting the highest and lowest temperature in vegetable greenhouse reached 68%. [Conclusion] The temperature simulation model should be to checked up and perfected further.