我国大豆需求增长的主导因素分析

Analysis of the Dominant Factors of Soybean Demand Increase in China

系统梳理了大豆需求的影响因素体系及影响机制,根据我国近10年来大豆需求变动情况,实证研究了决定大豆需求及进口数量的因素。研究发现,养殖方式向规模化转变,大幅增加了对工业饲料及豆粕的消耗;豆粕需求是大豆国内压榨数量的决定性因素,进而也是我国大豆进口量的标尺性指标。

The influencing factor system and influencing mechanism of soybean demand were hackled systematically. According to the change status of soybean demand in recent ten years in China, the dominant factors of soybean demand and import quantity were studied empirically. It was found that the shifting of animal husbandry to large-scaled breeding pattern greatly increased the consumption of manufactured＇feedstuff and soybean meal. And the demand of soybean meal was the dominant factor of soybean domestic crush quantity as well as the decisive index of soybean import quantity.