我国工业制成品贸易条件的影响因素分析

An Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Trade Terms of China's Manufactured Goods

本文运用1981-2006年的数据,对我国工业制成品的价格贸易条件、收入贸易条件和单要素贸易条件的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明:技术进步与我国工业制成品的价格贸易条件和收入贸易条件呈显著正相关关系,人均资本存量与收入贸易条件呈显著负相关关系,资本技术密集型产品出口占工业制成品出口的比例与价格贸易条件呈显著正相关关系;经济增长与收入贸易条件、单要素贸易条件呈显著正相关关系,累积外国直接投资占国内资本存量的比例与价格贸易条件和收入贸易条件呈显著负相关关系;以直接标价法表示的实际汇率变动与三种贸易条件均呈显著负相关关系。本文在此基础上提出了相关的政策建议。

This paper analyses the influencing factors of net barter terms of trade and income terms of trade and single factor terms of China＇s manufactured goods. It empirically assesses the significance of these factors using data from 1981 to 2006. The result shows that there is a positive correlation between the technology progress and net barter terms and income terms of trade, a negative correlation between per capita capital stock and income terms of trade, and a positive correlation between the proportion of capital-intensive products to manufactured products and net barter terms of trade. Furthermore, there is a positive correlation between economic growth and income terms of trade and single factor terms of trade, and a negative correlation between the percentage of accumulated FDI in domestic capital stock and net barter terms of trade and income terms of trade. There also exists a negative correlation between real exchange rate changed by direct quotation and three trade terms. In the end, some policy suggestions are provided.