广义相加模型在气温健康效应研究中的应用

The Application of GAM in Research of Air Temperature's Effect on Heath

目的估计气温改变对城市居民死亡的影响，探讨广义相加模型（generalized additive model，GAM）在气温健康效应研究中的应用。方法应用广义相加模型分析2002～2004年的时间序列资料，在尽可能地控制混杂因素的基础上，GAM中拟合二次函数分析气温变化对城市目居民死亡数的影响。结果根据模型拟合结果求得对于闵行区居民死亡的“适温段”为（11．7℃～20．7l℃），随着气温的升高和降低而偏离“适温段”时。每目居民死亡人数增加。结论上海市日均气温对闵行区居民死亡有影响，GAM应用灵活方便。

Objective To assess the effect of air temperature on mortality, and discuss the application of generalized additive model（GAM）. Methods The study used GAM to analyze time series. After controlling eonfoundings by all means, the study estimated the effect of air temperature on mortality in virtue of quadratic curve and differential coefficient principle. Results The study estimated an optimum temperature range （11.67℃ --20.71℃） by relative risk and 95% confidence interval for mortality with air temperature variation. Deaths generally increased as temperature decreased or increased from this range. Conclusion The findings indicated that the current air temperature had an acute effect on mortality in Minhang District , Shanghai. GAM can be applied extensively and conveniently.