心理预期对农产品供应链稳定性影响研究

Research on the Influence of Psychological Expectation to the Stability of Agro-Products Supply Chain

探讨了基于非对称信息下"龙头企业-合作组织"的二级农产品供应链稳定性问题,研究表明:除了利益因素硬性机制影响供应链稳定,供应链成员对客观自然状态认识的心理预期软性机制也会对供应链稳定性造成影响。在非对称信息的条件下,只有Nash均衡下心理预期不会对供应链稳定造成影响,Stack- elberg均衡和Pareto均衡下心理预期变化都会对供应链稳定造成影响,因此,龙头企业与合作组织要在公平分配利益的基础上加强沟通,强化信任机制的建立,以促进农产品供应链稳定发展。

The paper discuses the stability of the twostage supply chain ＂ Dragon head Company-Cooperation Organizations＂ based on asymmetric information, leading to the following conclusion： aside from the hard mechanism for profit influencing on the supply chain cooperation, the soft mechanism, psychological anticipation, referring to knowledge of objective natural situation for members of supply chain, is also affecting the supply chain＇s cooperation and stability. The result indicates that psychological anticipation will not affect the stability only under the Nash Equilibrium; psychological anticipation will affect the stability of Agro- Products Supply Chain under the Stackelberg Equilibrium and Pareto Equilibrium. Therefore, the Dragon-head Company and Cooperation Organizations shall enhance the communication; strengthen trust mechanism to promote a stable development of Agro Products Supply Chain based on the fair profit distribution.