新疆电力结构调整对SO2污染物排放总量的影响

The Influence of Electric Power Structure Adjustment Projects on SO_2 Total Emission Amount in Xinjiang

应用数学模型与预案分析相结合的方法,分别对新疆2010年电源结构调整的3个方案及污染治理水平调整（提高）的3个方案的SO2总排放量进行估算,并将其结果与2010年新疆电力行业SO2污染物总量控制目标相比较,确定“十一五”期间新疆电源结构调整及污染治理水平调整（提高）均应以中、高方案为调整首选目标,即到2010年时,火电在新疆电源结构中比例应下降为70%-65%,而水风电比例提高到30%-35%;同时提高火电行业污染治理水平,使SO2污染物排放系数约为“十五”末的55%-50%。新疆电力结构调整对实现“十一五”新疆电力行业SO2排放总量的控制目标及促进新疆社会经济、环境及电力工业的可持续发展具有重要意义。

Energy is the material foundation of economic and social development. As an important energy resource, the exploitation and the utilization of electric power also generate environmental problems. With the rapid development of the electric industrial of Xinjiang, the emission amount of sulphur dioxide pollutant produced by fossil power plants have increased year by year, but the serious environmental pollutions have become a key confined effect to sustainable development of Xinjiang. Total emission control of pollutants is a very effective method to control the pollutant emission amount and to improve regional environmental qualities. In the 2010a, the SO2 total emission amount in Xinjiang must be less than 51.9 × 10^4t, and the SO2 total emission amount of fossil power plants must be less than 16.6 ×10^4t. Combine with the quantitative mathematics model and scenarios analysis methods, the paper puts forward three projects of electric power structure adjustment and three projects of pollution control levels of fossil power plants. By calculates the SO2 total emission amount of these projects in 2010a in Xinjiang, the paper reach the conclusion that the adjustment strategy of Xinjiang electric power structure is very beneficial and very essential and the middle or high projects should be the first choice for electric power structure adjustment in 2010a. That is the proportion of fossil power in electric power structure should be declined to 70% - 65% , while the proportion of hydro and wind power in electric power structure should be increased to 70 % - 65 % . At the same time, it needs to improve the pollution control level to make the pollutant emission coefficient reduced the 55 % - 50% as the end of ＂tenth five＂.