高等教育自学考试考生流失现象分析研究

High Rate of Drop-out during the Process of Self-Learning for College Degree

高等教育自学考试（自考）是我国高等教育的一种重要形式,考生流失是自考中的一种普遍现象。流失原因分析对自考管理方法的改革有着重要的意义。本文是对过去7（2001—2007）年的自考数据库进行分析整理,通过科学定义流失的概念,提取流失样本,统计出自考是目前远程教育流失率两倍的结论;并合理选择影响考生流失的主要因素,运用数据挖掘中聚类方法与常规统计分析方法结合,得到流失考生的大体分布。

Self-Taught Higher Education Examination is one of the officially affirmed pathway for college degree by self-learning, drop-out during this process is very common, so that we try to find out the factors having influence on drop-out. This paper was based on the relevant data base about examinee from 2001 to2007. According to our operational definition of drop-out, we found that the rate of drop-out was nearly twice as tele-education in western countries. Risk factor for drop-out were also determined by cluster analysis and other conventional statistics.