“九五”期间我国经济周期的变动趋势与预测

On the Trend of Economic Cycle during the 9th5 years Period and Its Forecasting

“九五”期间我国经济周期的变动趋势与预测吴国富崔斌ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＢａｓｅｄｏｎｔｈｅｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓｏｆｐｅｒｉｏｄｉｃａｌｆｌｕｃｔｕａｔｉｏｎｅｘｉｓｔｉｎｔｈｅｅｃｏｎｏｍｉｃｒｕｎ－ｎｉｎｇｉｎｏｕｒｃｏｕｎｔｒｙ，ｔｈｅｃｈ...

Based on the characteristics of periodical fluctuation exist in the economic running in our country,the change trend of economic cycle during the 9th5years period were forecasted using the periodical autoregression model,and its running orbit and highlow points were measured.Then,combined with the forecasted results,the characteristics in our economic fluctuation during the period were analyzed.And finally,two permanent trends in future economic running were showed:our economy grows at high speed and its fluctuation tends to be stable and convergence.