中国M_2/GDP畸高原因的再考察——基于商业银行资产负债表的分析

The Re-study of the Elements Pushing M_2/GDP to a Imnormally High Level

改革开放以来,中国的M2/GDP不断攀高,已成为宏观经济领域的一个奇特现象。对商业银行资产负债表的分析及实证检验表明,商业银行的存贷差及高的不良资产是导致M2/GDP升高的最主要因素,而存贷差实际上是由于外汇储备的不断增加所引起的。M2/GDP的升高隐含了商业银行的支付风险,只要中国继续实行金融控制,则M/GDP还有不断升高的可能。

The ratio of M2 to GDP has been rising from economic reform in China, and has risen to an imnormally high level now, it is a very strange phenomenon in macroeconomics. Analysis of commercial bank-balance sheet and statistical test manifests that the high ratio of deposit to credit and the high ratio of bad loan are the main elements which push M2/GDP forward, the high ratio of deposit to credit was in fact caused by the increasing trade surplus. The rising of M2/GDP indicates commercial bank-payment risk. Provided financial control is continually carried out in China, M2/GDP is most likely to rise in future.