中国制造业聚集度的演进态势及其特征分析——基于1988～2005年的实证研究

The Changing Trend and Character of China’s Manufacturing Industrial Agglomeration Degree

本文利用Ellision和Glaeser建立的产业聚集度γi系数对我国18个制造行业1988-2005年的聚集度进行了精确测定，并考察了各制造行业聚集地的变化态势。结果表明，我国当前制造业聚集度的整体水平较高，产业聚集现象十分明显，特别是自然资源依赖度高和技术含量高的行业。1988-2005年我国制造业的平均聚集度一直呈上升趋势，且从增长速度上看，呈现出U型曲线特征。制造业聚集地的分布极不平衡，主要集中在江苏、广东、山东、浙江和上海5省市，中西部地区则远远落后，两极分化严重，并呈强化趋势。

This study measures the agglomeration degree of China＇s 18 manu- facturing industries from 1988 to 2005 by using the index developed by Ellision and Glaeser. Besides, this paper analyzes the changing trend of regional industrial agglomeration. The results indicate that the overall agglomeration degree of China＇s manufacturing industry is quite high, especially those resource-intensive industries and hi-tech industries. China＇s industrial agglomeration degree has continuously as-cended from 1988 to 2005 meanwhile its growth rate shapes U curve. It is also indicated that the agglomeration regional distribution is sharply unbalanced in East- Middle and West region dimensions in China. Regional economic polarization is serious and its tendency is intensified.