我国混合制养老金制度缴费率的经济效应分析

Analysis on the Economic Effects of China's Hybrid Pension System

本文将养老金制度缴费率变量引入两期迭代模型,以效用最大化为目标,建立了缴费率的消费效应、储蓄效应、资本效应以及经济增长效应等经济效应指标,并结合中国经济数据测算各种指标的数值。与以往研究相比,本文建立了系统的养老金制度缴费率的经济效应指标体系,并作了定量测算。测算分析表明,储蓄外生时缴费率和储蓄率组合可以优化个人效用,但不产生显著的消费效应;储蓄内生时,缴费率的储蓄效应为负,个人账户缴费的资本以及经济增长效应与个人账户收益率相关,统筹账户的资本及经济增长效应为负。

This paper induces variables of the contribution rate of pension system into the two-period model. Under the goal of maximum utility, the author con- structs some indexes of the economic effect of pension contribution rate on consumption, saving, capital and economic growth, and calculates these indexes according to china＇s economic data. Comparing former studies, this study constructs systematic indexes of the economic effect of pension contribution rate and makes qualitative calculation. The calculation and analysis show that, when saving is exogenous, the portfolio of contribution rate and saving ratio can optimize individual utility and can＇t produce extraordinary consumption effect. When saving is endogenous, the effect of contribution rate on saving is negative, the effect of contribution rate of individual accounts on capital and economic growth is related to the returns of individual accounts, and the effect of contribution rate of the social pooling account on capital and economic growth is negative.