东南亚地区形势:2008年

Regional Outlook:Southeast Asia in 2008

在刚刚过去的2007年,东南亚各国经济保持较高速度的增长;展望2008年,虽然有一些困难和不稳定因素,但是,总的而言,仍然是一个好年头。美国经济衰退给世界经济带来许多不确定因素,也给东南亚经济蒙上一层阴影。然而,时过境迁,美国经济虽然是影响东南亚经济的一个重要因素,但已经不是唯一的因素,美国一打喷嚏,东南亚就感冒的年代已经一去不复返了。东南亚政治在2008年基本能够保持稳定,马来西亚顺利举行大选;泰国前总理他信回国,新总理沙玛一再强调是他信的代言人,新政府执行了一条没有他信的他信政策。东盟通过了《东盟宪章》,它标志着这个地区性国际组织进入一个新的时代。东盟与各个大国的关系也比较顺利,日本在东南亚又有一些新的动作,福田首相继承其父亲老福田的路线,加强了东南亚外交。

Looking back to the year of 2007, we see a developing Southeast Asia at a rather quick speed ; looking ahead to the year of 2008, we may see a good year in Southeast Asia though there are many difficulties and unsta- ble factors. Economically, the U. S. is undergoing an economic recession and brings lots of unstable factors to the world economy and Southeast economy as well. However, though American economy is an important factor in- fluencing Southeast economy, it is no longer the only factor as before. Times are gone when Southeast East catches colds upon American sneezing. Politically, Malaysia has successfully held the general election. Thaksin, the formet Prime Minister of Thailand, returned to Thailand. The new premier Samak reiterates his continuity with Thaksin. ASEAN Charter has been established, marking a new era in the development of the regional international organization. ASEAN goes well with big powers. Japanese Prime Minister Fukuda keeps in line with his father to strengthen the diplomatic relations with Southeast Asian countries. Therefore, in 2008, the political situation in Southeast Asia will keep stable.