中国对外贸易方式变化对经济增长影响分析

To Analyse on the Impact of Change in Mode of Export and Import on the Growth of Economy in China

首先对我国对外贸易方式变化对经济增长影响的正负效应进行了理论分析;接着,对我国贸易方式变化与经济增长的关系进行实证了分析。分析的结论是,我国贸易方式变化对经济增长产生了负面影响;我国进出口贸易方式的变化是导致经济增长变化的格兰杰原因;而且进出口贸易方式变化产生了不同的作用,一方面我国进口贸易方式变化对经济增长产生了负面影响,另一方面出口贸易方式变化促进了经济增长。

In this article, firstly, from side of theory, the effect on China＇s growth of economy taken by the change in mode of foreign trade is analyzed. Then, the relation between the change in mode of foreign trade and the growth of economy is empirically analyzed. The research result as follows： （1） Generally, the change in mode of foreign trade is harmful to China＇s growth of economy; （2） Changes in the mode of export and import trade are Granger cause of the change of China＇ s growth of economy; （3） On one hand, the side effect on the growth is taken by the change in mode of the import trade. On the other hand, the positive effect On the growth is taken by the change in mode of the export trade.