气候变化对黄淮海地区弱冬性小麦的影响评价

The Assessment of the Effects of the Climate Change on the Weak Winter Wheat In Huang-Huaihai Plain

气候变暖正在影响我国的农业生产。研究某一区域一定历史时期气候变化对农业的影响,可以使人们科学认识当地气候资源,更好地利用气候资源为农业生产服务。本文以黄淮海地区弱冬性小麦为例,利用DSSAT中的CERES-Wheat作物生长模型研究上世纪后40年气候变化对冬小麦生长发育及产量的影响,得出几点主要结论:气候变化对弱冬性小麦发育期影响不大,而对产量影响较大;灌溉能极大地提高冬小麦的产量。

Climate warming is affecting our country＇s agricultural production. A study on a certain historical period of climate change on the impact of regional agriculture can make people understand the local climate resources and make better use of climate resources for agricultural production services. This paper studied the effects of the climate change in the last 40 years of the last century on the weak winter wheat in the Huang-huai-hai Plain by the crop growth model-CERES-Wheat. The main conclusions were as follows： the climate change had little effect the winter wheat phonological periods, but had strong effect on its yield. It was remarkable that irrigation was able to greatly enhance the yield of winter wheat.