阿克苏河径流变化与北大西洋涛动的关系

The Relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and Runoff Variation of Aksu River in Xinjiang, China

使用小波、交叉小波多尺度分析、相关和突变检验以及线性趋势等方法研究了阿克苏河天然径流与北大西洋涛动的关系。结论如下:(1)对NAO与阿克苏河径流的年代际变化、周期、相关等分析表明两者关系密切;(2)交叉小波谱表明:阿克苏河径流与NAO在年、冬季和夏季各周期尺度上的20世纪90年代相关性高,相关显著区多集中在90年代;(3)阿克苏河径流与NAO年代趋势强弱变化具有一致性;(4)NAO突变影响阿克苏河径流突变;(5)NAO通过大气环流变化来影响阿克苏河流域温度和降水,进而影响其径流。

The relationship between North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） and Aksu River Runoff （ARR） was investigated by using the methods of wavelet transform, cross wavelet transform, correlation, abrupt change test and linear trend. The results show that： （1） The close affinity between ARR and NAO is obtained by analyzing its interdecadal variations, cycles and correlation. （2） The cross wavelet transform indicates that the correlation is good between ARR and NAO at all cycles in the 1990s, the significant correlation areas are distributed mainly in the 1990s. （3） The variation of ARR and NAO trend strength is coherent. （4） The abrupt change of NAO affects the abrupt change of ARR. （5） The atmospheric circulation variations caused by NAO has impact on the climate of the Aksu River basin, then the runoff of the Aksu River is affected.