我国农业上市公司财务预警模型效果的比较研究

Comparative Research of Financial Pre-warning Models for China's Agricultural Listed Companies

文章基于2003—2005年我国沪深两市农业上市公司的样本数据,比较了单变量预警分析、Z计分模型、Zeta模型、修正的F模型以及分数模型对我国农业板块上市公司的财务预警效果。结果表明,后三者的预测准确率明显较高,并且越接近被ST年份其预测准确率总体上越高,其中加入行业修正值及现金流量指标的分数模型的预测准确性在各时点均最高。文章的实证结果提示了关注财务预警分析的行业差异性并进行更多深入的具体行业分析的必要性,最后得出结论并指明后续研究方向。

Based on sample data in years 2003 -2005 for agricultural companies listed on Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, this paper compares the financial pre-warning abilities of single-variable pre-warning model, Z model, Zeta model, corrected F model, and fraction model. It turns out that the latter 3 types of models provide significantly higher rate of accuracy which is more obvious as companies approach Special Treatment （ST）, and that model corrected with industrial factors and cash flow variables shows the highest rate of pre-warning accuracy. The empirical results suggest that cross-industry difference of financial pre-warning for listed companies exists, and that more relevant industry-specific analysis is quite necessary. It then concludes with directions of further study.