河北省煤炭资源安全预警研究

Study on the early warning of coal resources safety in Hebei Province

从资源保障、开发条件、生态环境和煤炭市场4个方面分析了河北省煤炭资源安全影响因素,建立了煤炭资源安全预警指标体系,划分了警度,进行了预警区间分析,并应用突变理论建立了综合预警模型.在对河北省煤炭需求、生产能力预测等方面综合分析的基础上,进行了河北省煤炭资源安全预警分析,给出了相应的警度预报.河北省煤炭资源安全处于重警状态,应加大地质勘探、矿山建设投资,提高煤炭资源采出率,同时发展新能源,改变能源消费结构.

The affecting factors of coal resources safety of Hebei Province were analyzed from four sides of coal resources ensuring, development condition, ecological environment and coal marketplace. The early warning index system of coal resources safety was set up. The warning degrees were defined and the boundary of warning index to each warning degree was studied. The synthesize warning model was set up by making use of catastrophe theory. Based on the prediction of coal consume quantity and production ability in Hebei Province, the coal resources safety in Hebei Province was analyzed. The warning degrees of the coal resources safety of Hebei Province are grave, and the investments in coal resources exploration and mine construction should be increased, while the new type of energy should be developed, and the energy consuming structure should be changed.