影响农民消费水平因素的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of the Influencing Factors on Rural Consumption Level

我国农民消费的持续低迷的态势严重阻碍了经济发展和农民生活水平的提高。在简要论述几种经典消费模型的基础上,运用一种消费函数,并以近30年山东省农民收入水平及影响因素为数据进行实证分析,得出主要影响农民消费水平偏低的因素为收入水平偏低和农民对未来预期不确定性。最后从确定性、不确定性和人口因素三个方面分析如何提高农民消费水平。

The persistent depression trend of China＇s rural consumption has seriously hindered the economic development and improvement of the living standards of farmers. This paper discusses the classical model based on consumption, uses a consumption function, and Analyses based on income levels of farmers in Shandong Province and some influencing factors in recent 30 years. Then the paper concludes that the low consumption level and the uncertainty of future of farmers are the main factors influencing rural consumption. Finally the paper explains how to improve the level of consumption in three aspects： certainty, uncertainty and demographic factors.