政府规模与服务业发展——基于中国省级单位面板数据的分析

Size of Government and the Development of Services Sector——Analysis Based on the Provincial Panel Data of China

本文利用1982～2006年中国省级单位面板数据分析政府规模对服务业发展的影响。计量结果显示，政府规模对服务业发展有积极影响。该结果对不同的样本范围和模型设定具有很强的稳健性。当把样本时期分为5个时间段并进行估计，结果表明在2002～2006年政府规模对服务业发展的影响为负。进一步的研究表明，近年来政府规模对服务业发展的负面影响越来越大。

This paper examines the impact of China＇s size of government on the development of Services Sector by using the provincial panel data between 1982 and 2006： The result is that the size of government has a positive impact on the services sector. This result is highly robust across samples and model specifications. When the period is divided into 5 periods, the result is that the size of government has a negative impact on the services sector between 2002 and 2006. The further study show that the size of government has more and more negative impact on the services sector.