入世后国际贸易与国内物价水平变动的实证研究

International Trade and Domestic Price Level since China's Accession to the WTO: An Empirical Analysis

一直以来,关于国际贸易是否影响国内物价水平还存在争议。在当前新的经济环境中,研究入世以来中国国际贸易对物价水平的影响具有现实意义。对我国国际贸易与物价水平的关系及其影响路径的实证检验表明:我国进出口额与国内物价水平之间存在协整关系。进出口贸易通过影响国内货币供应量和国内总供需而间接影响价格的这两条影响路径显著存在,国际贸易中进口商品的国际价格对国内价格水平的影响相对微弱。

There has been controversy over whether international trade affects domestic price level. In the new economic climate, it is of practical significance to study the impact of China＇s foreign trade on price level since its accession to the WTO. This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between them and its transmitting channels and concludes that there is a cointegration relationship. Import and export trade indirectly affects price significantly through two channels, money supply and aggregate supply at home , but not for the time being through the channel of foreign price level.