改革开放以来我国财政政策效应的实证研究

The Empirical Research on the Effects of China's Fiscal Policy since the Reform and Opening-up

通过构建财政政策效应模型进行计量分析,结果表明:财政政策的总效果即对GDP的增长率贡献约为12.23%。其中,主动政策对经济增长的贡献率较大;而主动效果中,政府购买支出效果远大于税收的效果,说明了政府财政支出是促进我国经济增长的重要因素;在自动效果中,税收的效果大于政府购买支出的效果,说明我国的税收对经济的稳定效果是非常明显的。

An empirical research on the effects of China′s fiscal policy since Reform and Opening -up is made by setting up and analyzing a fiscal policy effects model based on the fiscal policy theory and practice. As a result, the gross effects of financial policies contribute 12.23% to the growth rate of GDP. In the effects, the initiative policy makes the major contribution to the economic growth, and in the initiative effects, the effects of governmen- tal purchase expenditure outweigh the effects of taxation. This demonstrates that financial expenditure of government is a significant factor to promote the economic growth of China. In the automatic effects, the effects of taxation outweigh the effects of governmental purchase expenditure. This demonstrates that the stabilization effect of taxation on economy is significant.