改进的最优组合人口预测模型及其应用

AN IMPROVED OPTIMAL COMBINATIVE MODEL FOR POPULATION FORECAST AND ITS APPLICATION IN LAND USE PLANNING

人口预测是编制土地利用总体规划的基础性研究工作,区域人口发展规模和数量是土地利用总体规划中确定各类用地控制指标和词整土地利用结构的重要依据。因此,科学准确地预测人口发展,是制定区域土地利用总体规划的基础。在分析各种人口预测模型的基础上,提出了一种改进的最优组合模型。并以湖南省张家界市永定区人口预测为例,利用改进的最优组合模型进行了人口模型预测,并与现有的线性回归模型、灰色系统GM(1,1)模型、logistic模型、最优组合模型的预测结果进行了对比分析。结果表明,提出的改进的最优组合模型预测结果准确可靠,有利于土地管理的科学决策,是适宜于区域土地利用规划中总人口预测的一种较好的方法。

Population forecasting is an essential work in making land use planning. The development scale and quantity of regional population are the basis for the confirmation of controlling indexes of land use and adjustment of land use structure in the overall land use planing. Therefore, scientifically and accurately predicting future population is important in making regional land-use planning. Based on analyzing several current models of population forecasting,this paper promotes an improved optimal combinative model. Taking an example of population forecast in Yongding District of Zhangjiajie City in Hunan Province, the gross population in this region was forecasted using the improved optimal combinative model. Compared with the linear regression analysis model, Grey Model GM （1,1）, logistic model, and optimal combinative model, the improved optimal combinative model is much more accurate, reliable and effective for policy makers in land management. It is considered that the improved optimal combinative model is a better one for forecasting population in regional land-use planning.